Taking Stock

Here we go with the 'Mandates' and Arnold talk. Over at NRO, David Frum suggests Arnold move away from the moderate platform he run on, and invigorate the GOP in CA. Well, he didn't come out and say that, he said:

He can try to govern in the same way he campaigned--as a quasi-independent in the Jesse Ventura mold. Or he can make himself a party leader and renovate and lead the California GOP.

Also over at NRO, (where I obviously do a lot of my right-wing spying), Serri Annis writes:

The good news is that once the smoke has cleared, Governor-elect Schwarzenegger will have received a substantial bipartisan mandate in a heavily Democratic state. Tuesday's recall could be considered the first uber-open primary that happened to be a general election. And Schwarzenegger pulled this off with the Republican establishment leading the charge for him.

Over at Instapundit, it is suggested that that the Dems in CA might be nervous because:

Most interesting bit so far: someone noted that according to the exit polls, Schwarzenegger and McClintock together got nearly 60% of the vote. That's got to have a lot of California Democrats worried.

My friend Brett simply put it that Davis suffered a 'Curb Stomping'

Let slow down for a moment.

People are applying 'normal' election analysis to all of this, but what is required is 'Recall' analysis.

I'll concede that this election was a mandate against Davis. From the beginning and still, (even though I voted against the Recall) I've said I wasn't a huge fan of Davis - neither are most Dem that I know.

However, in a state that has been slammed with problems, and with a wildly unpopular Governor, and with loads of $$ being thrown at the recall process, the recall still only garnered a 55 percent (from the latest CNN numbers, which will change) of people to vote for the recall.

The number of votes cast to keep Davis is almost exactly that of votes Arnold got. 3,479,700 voted to Keep Davis, while 3,564,635 voted for Arnold. Yes, Arnold still wins but it seems to me that's a 51-49 split.

And, let's not forget some of those (like me) who voted AGAINST the recall voted for Arnold. They must have, because Bustamante received over a million votes LESS than the number of votes cast against the recall. (Yes, I suppose some people who voted for the recall, didn't vote for a replacement or for one of the 'hopeless' candidates or, even less likely, voted for McClintock, but for the numbers to play out - some of them voted for Arnold. ).

That means in a Davis / Schwarzenegger election, it's would have been an even toss up (Yes, some of the votes that Mclintock got would most ecrtainly have went to Arnold, but I would hazard that ALL the votes that went to Bustamante would have gone to Davis).

My, admittedly long-winded, point is that it's not a mandate. In fact, if Arnold (who some conservatives Republicans hate) hadn't entered the fray, there wouldn't have been a contest. If the Republican choice had been limited to Simon/Mclintock - Davis would still be in office, without a doubt. There isn't a mandate here. There was an ouster of an unpopular Governor, and a star-powered 'this is the best we have' alternative elected.

Not eveyone is confused, however. Stephen over at Vodka Pundit gets it:

But those numbers are just for one race, waged in the main to remove a very unpopular, extremely ineffective, and pretty corrupt Governor......The Democrats lost a battle in California, but they still hold the battlefield

One final note: This isn't really sour grapes (as some will, undoubtedly, think) about the election. I'm glad it's over. When Bush won in 2000 - I was depressed. Right now, I mostly feel relief that the circus is (at least momentarily) over. What set me off is people trying to read a republican surge in CA out of all of this. It ain't happening, folks.